Planning for Survival
This last year Extinction Rebellion and Greta Thunberg between them have made a wonderful job of raising the visibility of the Climate Crisis. The majority of people in the UK are now very concerned about it. And the Labour Party has, almost certainly as a result, put forward a bold green agenda as part of its 2019 election manifesto. The Green Party has always had a bold green agenda of course but remains insignificant, not because it is, but because it is a victim of a voting system that is totally unfit for purpose.
But even if a future UK government were to meet Extinction Rebellion's 2025 carbon neutral target it would make no discernable difference to the Global Climate Crisis anyway because the UK only contributes 1-2% of the global greenhouse emissions.
One reason often given for the UK to push to become carbon neutral as early as possible is that the UK, by meeting these deadlines, would be leading by example which could be productive globally. I think this is wishful thinking.
Actions to date indicate that the world will continue with 'business as usual'. In spite of tremendous progress on many fronts we are still increasing our emissions year on year. There is no slowdown in the use of fossil fuels. There is no sign of a slowdown in greenhouse gas emissions, let alone the rapid tail-off that is needed, instead they are rising, and ever faster. All the important curves (see below) are in the wrong direction and some are exponential.
Realistic estimates on current trends are for a 2C rise by 2050 and a 3-4C rise by the end of the century. This will be so catastrophic that much of humanity will be under extreme stress and people in the higher risk areas will be fighting for survival - and losing. Migration problems will be horrendous. And of course things could happen a lot sooner if any of a number of tripping points is reached. We are in unchartered waters.
The best chance we have at avoiding the worst of this is probably through XR acting at an international level, forcing change on reluctant governments. But can we really expect XR to gain effective traction in Russia, China, or Brasil?
I think it is grossly irresponsible not to be planning for the likely 3-4C rise. The UK needs to move rapidly towards a totally sustainable way of living - both in food production, energy generation and use of natural resources. We have to assume that the imported food, energy, materials, goods and services that we currently enjoy will not be there in the medium to long term. We have to assume that higher temperatures, higher rainfall, loss of coastline, and stronger storms will be the norm and we have to plan to survive that scenario.
The UK is better placed than many, geographically, to weather the effects of the anticipated temperature rise, but only with radical action. The changes required would change the basic fabric of society, finance, and industry and would be a long, slow, painful and unpopular process. We need to start this now.
Is the Transition Movement a good starting point for such an initiative?
“I don’t want your hope, I want you to panic, I want you to feel the fear,” - Greta Thunberg.
“So we are losing the race, climate change is running faster than we are, and we need to sound the alarm, this is an emergency, this is a climate crisis and we need to act now. Unfortunately in politics, there is always a huge trend to keep the status quo.
The problem is that the status quo is a suicide.” - UN Secretary General António Guterres
Related Links:
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data
https://www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/1.htm
http://www.globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
https://www.livescience.com/17340-agu-climate-sensitivity-nasa-hansen.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/05/climate-crisis-11000-scientists-warn-of-untold-suffering
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live
But even if a future UK government were to meet Extinction Rebellion's 2025 carbon neutral target it would make no discernable difference to the Global Climate Crisis anyway because the UK only contributes 1-2% of the global greenhouse emissions.
One reason often given for the UK to push to become carbon neutral as early as possible is that the UK, by meeting these deadlines, would be leading by example which could be productive globally. I think this is wishful thinking.
Actions to date indicate that the world will continue with 'business as usual'. In spite of tremendous progress on many fronts we are still increasing our emissions year on year. There is no slowdown in the use of fossil fuels. There is no sign of a slowdown in greenhouse gas emissions, let alone the rapid tail-off that is needed, instead they are rising, and ever faster. All the important curves (see below) are in the wrong direction and some are exponential.
 |
| CO2 figures to end October 2019 |
The best chance we have at avoiding the worst of this is probably through XR acting at an international level, forcing change on reluctant governments. But can we really expect XR to gain effective traction in Russia, China, or Brasil?
I think it is grossly irresponsible not to be planning for the likely 3-4C rise. The UK needs to move rapidly towards a totally sustainable way of living - both in food production, energy generation and use of natural resources. We have to assume that the imported food, energy, materials, goods and services that we currently enjoy will not be there in the medium to long term. We have to assume that higher temperatures, higher rainfall, loss of coastline, and stronger storms will be the norm and we have to plan to survive that scenario.
The UK is better placed than many, geographically, to weather the effects of the anticipated temperature rise, but only with radical action. The changes required would change the basic fabric of society, finance, and industry and would be a long, slow, painful and unpopular process. We need to start this now.
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Unlikely that XR could take this on as it would be tantamount to an admission of failure. A bit early for that, and hopefully they will have success.Is the Transition Movement a good starting point for such an initiative?
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“I don’t want your hope, I want you to panic, I want you to feel the fear,” - Greta Thunberg.
“So we are losing the race, climate change is running faster than we are, and we need to sound the alarm, this is an emergency, this is a climate crisis and we need to act now. Unfortunately in politics, there is always a huge trend to keep the status quo.
The problem is that the status quo is a suicide.” - UN Secretary General António Guterres
Related Links:
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data
https://www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/1.htm
http://www.globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
https://www.livescience.com/17340-agu-climate-sensitivity-nasa-hansen.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/05/climate-crisis-11000-scientists-warn-of-untold-suffering
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live
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